Our panel of ESPN NFL Insiders is breaking down what all the offseason action means for the 2018 season throughout the week.
Next up: Which offseason addition — via free agency, the draft or trade — will make the biggest impact this year?
Insiders make their picks, plus dig into these topics:
Which offseason addition will make the biggest impact in 2018?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Tyrann Mathieu, S, Houston Texans. His past injuries have to be discussed, but the former Cardinal played faster on tape toward the end of 2017. He’s an upgrade in Houston at a position of need, and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel can utilize Mathieu’s versatility in the game plan. Think of a defensive matchup weapon here who can find the ball and play multiple roles for a secondary that struggled last year.
Mike Clay, NFL writer: Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, CBs, Los Angeles Rams. It’s hard to mention one without the other, so I’m going to cheat and go with the two trades the Rams made to acquire superstar corners Peters and Talib. Yes, Peters has some off-field concerns and Talib is now 32, but both have been top-10 performers at the position over the past few years and, along with Ndamukong Suh, help position the Rams as legit Super Bowl contenders in 2018.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Nate Solder, OT, New York Giants. The Giants haven’t scored 30 points in a game since Week 17 of 2015 — Tom Coughlin’s last season as their head coach. There are myriad reasons for the drought, but the main reason the offense hasn’t worked is that the line hasn’t played well. Moving on from 2015 draft bust Ereck Flowers and replacing him with a reliable veteran at left tackle should allow the Giants at least a chance to see how good their offense really can be. The price tag on Solder was massive, and could cause the Giants problems down the line. But he should make a big difference in 2018.
KC Joyner, NFL writer: Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers. Rodgers has the reputation of not throwing to his tight ends often enough, yet over the past four years Rodgers ranks 10th in completion percentage (51.6) and touchdown percentage (51.6) on end zone throws to tight ends. Those numbers should vault close to the top of the league now that Rodgers has a jump-ball tight end of Graham’s caliber, so this pairing could combine for double-digit touchdowns this season.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Case Keenum, QB, Denver Broncos. It’s either Keenum or Tyrod Taylor, simply because they are competent quarterbacks joining teams that were horrendous at the position last season. Even average play from them will provide massive upgrades. I’ll go with Keenum because there isn’t a highly drafted quarterback waiting to take his job.
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Cleveland Browns. Or Baker Mayfield. It doesn’t matter which one of them it is; either should be a massive upgrade on what Cleveland had at the quarterback position last season.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers. Rodgers has a strong history with tight ends that provide even the slightest mismatch. He looked often for Jermichael Finley from 2009 to 2013 (5.6 targets per game) and Jared Cook (5.1) in 2016. Even if Graham’s best days are behind him, he is with a quarterback who wants to use the tight end as much as any in the NFL.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants. It’s hard for me to look past a player who is primed for the possibility of handling 250-plus total touches right away. We’ve seen rookie running backs make an immediate impact in recent seasons, and Barkley has a decidedly clear avenue to doing the same for the G-Men.
Which team declined most this offseason?
Yates: Buffalo Bills. Note an important caveat: There is a long-term building process that was followed and not in any way compromised this offseason. The Bills performed exceptionally well in single-score games last season (6-2), which played an integral part in snapping their postseason drought. But it was clear they were not sold on Tyrod Taylor as the long-term quarterback solution, and they utilized their robust draft capital to select Josh Allen seventh overall. Factoring in the QB transition and offensive-line shuffle, Buffalo profiles as a regression team in the short term.
Seifert: Miami Dolphins. Their plan is difficult to discern. They’ve parted ways with most of their best players, from Ndamukong Suh to Jarvis Landry, and added a crew of aging veterans that includes tailback Frank Gore (35 when the season begins), receiver Danny Amendola (32) and guard Josh Sitton (32). Their faith in quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is returning from ACL surgery, is risky at best. The Dolphins aren’t rebuilding in any functional way, but their roster is not ready to compete for a playoff spot, either. That’s a major step back.
Schatz: Buffalo Bills. The QB situation is a mess. Even if you’re a believer in Allen (I’m not), you have to admit he’s the kind of quarterback who will likely require a lot of work to transition. The offensive line is a mess, too, with Buffalo’s three best linemen gone via either trade or retirement. Football Outsiders’ free-agency analysis also shows edge rusher Trent Murphy as one of this year’s signings least likely to live up to the value of his three-year, $22.5 million contract.
Joyner: Seattle Seahawks. Mel Kiper gave them his lowest grade of the draft, and their free-agent additions were arguably the least inspiring in the league. Those might be enough to drop Seattle to the bottom of this list, but how in the world did the Seahawks do so little to upgrade the offensive line, which was arguably the worst in the league last season?
Graziano: Seattle Seahawks. The decline obviously started last season, sooner than most of us expected. But losing Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril and Sheldon Richardson in the same offseason (with Kam Chancellor‘s situation still unresolved) is to see a foundation crumble underneath you. Pete Carroll is not to be underestimated as a puzzle-solver, but does he have enough pieces?
Clay: Miami Dolphins. It was hard not to think of the Chip Kelly-era Eagles when watching the Dolphins chase “culture” while moving on from talented players such as Jay Ajayi, Suh, Pouncey, Landry and Michael Thomas over the past several months. Miami is weak or below average at most positions and is suddenly a candidate for the first overall pick in next April’s draft.
Bowen: Seattle Seahawks. The “Legion of Boom” used to dictate the flow of the game. Play three-deep coverage, challenge routes and physically control the middle of the field. No free passes there. However, with Sherman now in San Francisco, Chancellor facing an uncertain future and a front-four pass rush that must be retooled, the Seahawks have crucial roles to fill on the defensive side of the ball in a division that features quarterbacks Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Which team improved the most this offseason?
Bowen: Los Angeles Rams. The arrow is pointing up for the Bears and Browns after productive offseasons, but I’m looking at the Rams due to the proven, veteran talent they brought in via trades and free agency. Cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib have the playmaking skills to find the ball in the secondary. Go get it. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh bolsters the interior of the front line next to All-Pro Aaron Donald. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is an upgrade for the passing game. Strong, aggressive moves put this squad in position to win the NFC West and make a serious playoff run.
Clay: Cleveland Browns. They had the league’s worst quarterback play in 2017 but solidified it by acquiring Tyrod Taylor and first overall pick Baker Mayfield. Joe Thomas and Danny Shelton are gone, but Cleveland stocked up with talent: E.J. Gaines, TJ Carrie, Carlos Hyde, Jarvis Landry, Chris Hubbard and Damarious Randall as well as early-round rookies Denzel Ward, Austin Corbett and Nick Chubb. This is a team on the rise.
Graziano: Chicago Bears. The problem is that because of the strength of their division, I don’t know that the improvement will necessarily show in the standings. The Bears spent big in free agency, which isn’t always the best way to go, but they’ve improved their wide receiver corps and kept their secondary intact with that spending. I believe their top three draft picks — Roquan Smith, James Daniels and Anthony Miller — are guys who can help them right away at positions of significant need.
Joyner: Cleveland Browns. It’s incredible that the Browns were able to improve in as many ways as they did this offseason. They added two quality quarterbacks, have a logjam of good running backs with the additions of Hyde and Chubb, brought in three solid cornerbacks in free agency and acquired the best coverage cornerback in the draft (Ward). Three new offensive linemen give the Browns one of the deepest blocking walls in the NFL, and they added Landry, arguably the best possession receiver in the league.
Seifert: New York Jets. Stay with me for a moment. There is no doubt that the Browns have raised their talent level more from 2017 to 2018. But they also had the furthest to go. The Jets’ drafting of quarterback Sam Darnold establishes a long-term focus for what was already a decently talented roster. For the first time in six years, the Jets know whom they’re building around. Don’t underestimate the value in that, even if Darnold doesn’t make a huge impact in 2018.
Yates: Cleveland Browns. From a talent-added standpoint relative to where the team was last season, Cleveland takes the cake. That, of course, includes the fact that this team was historically bad in 2017, becoming just the second to go 0-16. The Browns have cultivated a short- and long-term plan at quarterback and talent across the offense, and they reshaped the secondary.
Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton expected to play vs. Buffalo Bills
Hilton suffered hamstring and chest injuries in a Week 4 overtime loss to Houston that caused him to miss games against the Patriots and Jets. He was a full participant in practice Wednesday and listed as a limited participant Thursday.
“[My] less [than 100 percent] is better than a lot of people’s [100 percent],” Hilton said earlier this week.
The Colts (1-5) have missed Hilton, who has 21 receptions for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns this season, as they have 15 dropped passes over the past three games.
In other injury news, coach Frank Reich has ruled out defensive lineman Denico Autry, tight end Jack Doyle, safety Clayton Geathers, receiver Ryan Grant and running back Robert Turbin for Sunday’s game.
Myles Garrett of Cleveland Browns complains about officiating after bad calls
The No. 1 overall pick unloaded on them Friday, criticizing them for several calls that have gone against Cleveland in recent weeks and swung momentum in their games.
“Do your job just like we need to do our job,” Garrett said. “If it’s holding, call holding. If it’s a false start, false start, whether it’s us or them.”
Garrett spoke out unafraid of any consequences from the league, which is sensitive about players criticizing its officiating crews.
“If I get fined, so be it,” he said. “Something needs to be said. If it keeps on going this way, this route, where it seems like we keep on getting the short stick.”
Garrett has issues with a number of calls, but he was particularly peeved about a play in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 38-14 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
With the Chargers driving, Los Angeles left tackle Russell Okung clearly moved and dropped into pass protection before the ball was snapped. Garrett stopped rushing Okung, and several other players slowed in anticipation of a whistle. But nothing was called, the play continued and Philip Rivers threw a 29-yard touchdown pass.
So what should have been a false start instead became a touchdown.
“It was so obvious,” Garrett said. “To my mind, he’s moved, nobody else has moved and the ball hasn’t moved, so it’s kinda textbook. The flag should be up. I don’t understand how you don’t see it. That’s his job is to look down the line and see when people are jumping offside or false starting, but I’ve got to keep on finishing the play.”
And while the score put the Chargers up by 18 in a game they’d win by 24, Garrett said a different outcome on the play could have changed things.
“Momentum matters in the game,” he said. “No doubt. And a six-point turnaround, a seven-point turnaround like that where it could’ve been a sack or maybe a forced fumble if you keep on playing, or just a no play at all, to a touchdown, that’s a huge difference. There were a couple missed calls like that, and that’s not on Okung, he’s just doing his job.
“It’s on the ref and to him to have that kind of integrity to call that play when it comes.”
Garrett also referenced the Sept. 30 game at Oakland when a strip sack of Derek Carr was nullified by a quick whistle. The Browns scooped the apparent fumble and were running for a TD when the officials ruled Carr was in the grasp.
NFL senior vice president of officiating Al Riveron later acknowledged the crew made the wrong call.
Garrett said there were other instances, and he just wants there to be fairness.
“If it’s holding for them, if they’re grabbing us, if they’re turning us, if they’re trying to pull us out of a gap whether it’s a run play or a pass play, it needs to be called,” he said. “There’s no excuse for us. We need to get their hands off of us and we need to play ball, because we know they’re not going to get those kind of calls, but at the end of the day, if they see it, they need to pull the flag out.
Week 7 NFL betting nuggets to know for every game
Last week’s trends came through, with the Pittsburgh Steelers winning outright as an underdog in Cincinnati.
This week, the trends point to a couple of home underdogs — the Chicago Bears and New York Jets — continuing their success in this spot. The trends also call for a Dallas Cowboys upset win in Washington.
Here are the rest of the trends that should help you in betting the NFL this weekend.
All lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS with three outright wins in their past five games as an underdog of more than a field goal.
The Chargers are 6-16-1 ATS in their past 23 games as a favorite of more than a field goal.
The Bears are 8-2-1 ATS with five outright wins in their past 11 games as a home underdog.
The Bears are 4-1 ATS and 4-1 SU in their past five games against AFC teams.
The under is 15-5 in the Patriots’ past 20 road games.
Jameis Winston is 3-9 ATS with seven outright losses in 12 career starts as a favorite.
The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as an underdog.
The over is 6-0 in the Buccaneers’ past six games.
The over is 12-3 in the Dolphins’ past 15 home games played in Miami.
The Dolphins are 7-3-1 ATS with seven outright wins in their past 11 games as a home underdog in Miami.
This will mark the first time the Colts are favored by at least 7 points since 2014. Andrew Luck is 6-2 ATS in eight career starts when favored by at least a touchdown, including five straight covers.
The Jets are 8-1-1 ATS with six outright wins in their past 10 games as a home underdog.
Kirk Cousins is 0-3 ATS with two outright losses and a tie in his three starts as a road favorite over the past two seasons.
The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS and 4-0 SU in their past four home games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Baltimore has an average margin of victory of 18.3 PPG in those four wins.
The over is 7-2 ATS in the Saints’ past nine games as an underdog.
The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS with 11 outright wins in their past 15 games as an underdog against the Redskins.
The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings between these NFC East rivals.
Dak Prescott is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU in four career starts against the Redskins.
The over is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings between these rivals.
Over the past 30 seasons, there have been 13 games that closed with an over/under of at least 58. The over is 9-3-1 in those 13 games.
The Bengals are 7-2 ATS with five outright wins in their past nine games as an underdog.
The over is 16-6 in the Falcons’ past 22 home games, including 4-0 this season.
The over is 9-2 in the 11 games with an over/under above 52 this season.
Liverpool news: Reds ace makes future decision, Champions League final had huge impact
MotoGP Japan: Results, Practice 3 at Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi, Jack Miller into Q2
Manchester United backed to appoint Rafa Benitez as manager and FORGET Liverpool memories
Man Utd absolutely SLAMMED by Arsenal legend over Luke Shaw contract extension
V8 Supercars Gold Coast 600: Qualifying Results, Craig Lowndes penalty video, Shane van Gisbergen fastest
Liverpool transfer news: 'I was at the airport waiting to join' – Simao EXCLUSIVE
Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton expected to play vs. Buffalo Bills
Report: Westbrook could return Sunday
Supercars 2019: Gold Coast 500 confirmed; Races for the Grid to pay points; Co-drivers Cup?
Chelsea news: Real Madrid told of staggering Eden Hazard asking price – EXCLUSIVE
Cricket20 hours ago
Mohammad Abbas, Yasir Shah put Pakistan on the brink of series win
Soccer14 hours ago
Chelsea news: Man Utd used Cristiano Ronaldo to try and seal Eden Hazard transfer
Motorsport2 hours ago
MotoGP Japan: Results, Practice 3 at Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi, Jack Miller into Q2
Soccer19 hours ago
Man Utd news: Mourinho made Sanchez confession, Ibrahimovic on return, Woodward showdown
Cricket13 hours ago
The runners and riders in the race to be the England team director
Soccer19 hours ago
Chelsea vs Man Utd predictions: Seven things that will definitely happen
NFL13 hours ago
Arizona Cardinals fire offensive coordinator Mike McCoy
Soccer18 hours ago
Cristiano Ronaldo: Juventus deal shows Real Madrid can sign Kylian Mbappe – McManaman